Take-Two has published a report where it collects its advertising spending forecast for the next few years which suggests, quite clearly, that GTA 6 could hit the market before the end of 2023.
Take a look at the accompanying chart, courtesy of TweakTown. When Red Dead Redemption 2 was released in fiscal year 2019 the firm Take-Two, which took care of publishing it, invested nearly $ 50 million in advertising, while in the following fiscal years it plans a marked reduction in spending.
This has a very simple explanation. When a triple A game launch occurs, its value is at its peak, is when more money can be reported both the development studio and the publisher, Rockstar and Take-Two in this case, respectively, and it is when it is most interesting to spend money to promote it to maximize sales.
Over time, the value of that game decreases, its sale price drops to compensate for the loss of user interest, and income is reduced, which minimizes investment in advertising, since it is no longer so profitable.
Okay, now look at the huge expense Take-Two is planning to make in fiscal year 2024, nothing more and nothing less than 89 million dollars. What does that tell us? Well, very simple, that around that time slot we are going to see the launch of a triple A game of great importance, and that this could be GTA 6. It is not confirmed, but it certainly makes a lot of sense.
GTA 6: an intergenerational game that will mark the end of PS4 and Xbox One
Over the past few weeks we’ve seen a lot of information indicating that GTA 6 could be exclusive to the new generation, but looking at the huge user base that PS4 and Xbox One have, and what Rockstar did with GTA V, I think it’s unlikely that decide to limit yourself in that way, after all what they are interested in making money and maximizing income, and to exclude the current generation of consoles would be to throw stones at their own roof.
As for the exact release date of GTA 6 we can not specify anything for sure, but the accompanying graph suggests that its arrival should take place between the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024. PS5 and Xbox Series X will hit the market later this year, so if this is confirmed the release of GTA 6 would take place two years later.
GTA V had a tiered release as it came in 2013 on Xbox 360 and PS3, it was available in 2014 for Xbox One and PS4 and did not see the light on PC until 2015So there is a chance that Rockstar may choose to follow a similar strategy with GTA 6.
As we have said there is nothing definitive, but that forecast of advertising expenses for 2024 that has been confirmed by Take-Two it is quite a statement of intent.